In 2020, President Joe Biden secured a narrow victory, with 49.4 percent of the vote, flipping it blue after Trump's 2016 win with about 49 percent. Ahead of the 2024 vote, polling consistently showed Trump and Harris neck-and-neck, with just one point separating them in the last few days before Election Day.

As the election loomed, Trump maintained his lead over Harris in the latest Arizona polls. It's an advantage that data show is driven by a wide gender gap and by voters who hold pessimistic views about the economy, immigration and the direction of the country.